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Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Jared Cross: leading the discussion
Nothing like a little bit of actual evidence to spoil the party:
Chris, CHONE’s run production predictions was actually somewhat *high* last year. For the 438 players I looked at (the ones projected by the major forecasters).
system projected (R+RBI)/PA
CHONE 0.2505
PECOTA 0.2444
Marcel 0.2455actual 0.2406
If you prefer, by OPS:
Chone 0.770
Pecota 0.763
Marcel 0.775actual 0.769
Here chone looks to be dead on. The point is, Chone isn’t overly pessimistic.
My basic position in dealing with potential trolls is this: give them a little bit of education.
- If they are trolls, they ignore the evidence, and continue on their path of continuing with their unsupported opinion (i.e., bullsh!t). At that point, ignore them, because there’s no reasoning with them. They are just being stubborn.
- If they are not trolls, they appreciate the evidence, and take a step toward better understanding. Mike Silva, for example, would probably have (has) been thrown into the troll quicksand by many, but I think he took an enormous step forward in wanting to understand the issues. I appreciate the way he put himself out there. He has a chance to change his position based on the change in circumstances.
If Chris Perry is a straight arrow, he’ll appreciate what Jared has done. If he’s a mooch, he’ll continue to spout the party line. Your turn, Mr. Perry.
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