from Amazon
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Is this player having a sub-par year with the bat (and the problem with OPS or OPS+)?
Here is my formula I use for offensive lwts after park and opponent (the pool of pitchers)-adjusting a player’s stats. Also, I remove all IBB and sac bunt attempts (which include some singles, some outs, some official sacrifice bunts, etc.).
lwts=.48*(ts-ifs) + .4* ifs +.77*d+1.07*t + 1.40*hr+.32*(bb+hbp) + .51*roe - outval*(outs)
ts=total singles. ifs=infield singles.
Outval is determined by summing the entire league’s lwts to zero AND using these normalized values for a K, a fly out, and a ground out:
For RHB
so=.288
fly out=.274
ground out =.308
For LHB
so=.288
fly out=.274
ground out =.288
For SHB
so=.288
fly out=.274
ground out =.295
These are per 630 PA (around 150 games for a player in a random slot in a lineup)
2004 18.9
2005 -.5
2006 47.6
2007 17.8
2008 18.0
The player is 31 years old, BTW.
He is being accused of having a poor year offensively, and not just based on traditional garbage stats.
Do you know who he is?
Do you know why he is being accused of having a poor year offensively?
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