THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, September 10, 2009

Is there any merit to this logic?

By , 08:01 PM

You’ve all heard some version of this before:

In today’s Nats/Phils game, Pete Orr was on third with 1 out and Zimmerman hits a short fly to center. Orr does not go on the catch. The commentators, Dibble and the other guy, say, “Why would they hold him? They are 50 games under .500. What do they have to lose? If you want to move forward, you’ve got to take some risks.”

Should the Nats season record have any bearing on whether he goes or not in that situation? I don’t think so, but I could be wrong. The scary part is that you have heard this argument many times from TV commentators and they think that their logic is ironclad, I assume.

(29) Comments • 2009/09/12 • Sabermetrics • In-game_Strategy

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Is there any merit to this logic?

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