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Friday, June 25, 2010
Is there a minimum below which you should not forecast a pitcher’s ERA?
I didn’t think of ever setting a limit, just letting Marcel decide based on the data. The forecasted ERA basically becomes an over/under. MGL reasoned that it may make sense to set a limit, because there’ll be a point where it will simply be a 50/50 proposition. He asserted that that limit should be 1.50 runs per 9IP better than league average (based on a normalized league ERA of 4.00). That’s equivalent to a 160 ERA+ on b-r.com, and 62.5% RA Index that I use (runs allowed divided by league runs allowed; that’s the recipricol of b-r.com)
After much arguing, I’ve come to respect MGL’s position on the matter. I need to do more testing to try to come up with the most reasonable boundary line to use. I’m at least coming around to the idea that a boundary line is, if not needed, at least a useful tool.
Below are all the posts we had on the matter, moved from another thread.
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