from Amazon
Monday, March 16, 2009
Is there a bias in PECOTA relative to speedsters?
This is weakly statistically significant, and indicates PECOTA does in fact overrate speedsters.
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Clearly, model specification is an issue, but I am afraid to distribute my data since PECOTA projections are proprietary (and I assume historical ones are as well). For the sake of transparency, however, I will run regressions that people request by post or email me, with alternative models using the PECOTA data.
You should have no fear of that. Their TOS is explicit:
PEV expressly prohibits the copying of any of the protected materials on its web site except for the purpose of fair use as defined in the copyright laws and as described below. Fair use of copyrighted material includes the use of protected materials for noncommercial purposes such as research, peer review, commentary and news reporting.
This research clearly falls under fair use guidelines. Indeed, there is no way that Nate and the gang at BPro would object and send you a cease and desist if you present research on their work. I am not a lawyer, but seriously, what’s the worst that can happen? Furthermore, since it’s data from prior to 2009, it has no additional value to them. Indeed, they should be publishing all their old forecasts for research purposes to begin with, just as I do with Marcel.
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