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Sunday, August 30, 2009
Is the fantasy baseball snake-draft fair?
No, not based on the results of the Forecasters Challenge. Here are the average points per draft based on draft order, for the 1000 random drafts:
The bias is unmistakable. In order to get a sense of the differences, an average pick is worth 40 points. The difference between the 1st and 22nd pick is 62 points. So, the net effect is that the guy who picks first has an extra average draft pick at the expense of the guy who picks last. The guys at the bottom third of the draft list are certainly getting scr-wed.
The solution is that the snake-order changes to a fixed order at some point. Say, as an illustration, rounds 1 through 5 are snake-ordered, and then from rounds 6 to 25, the last place team always selects first. Something along those lines. I’d have to recode my program to find the optimum point at which you switch from snake-order to fixed order. And it will obviously have to be at an even number.
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