Friday, April 17, 2009
Is recent change in fastball speed an indicator of future success?
First, I love the question. Secondly, let’s look back at the end of the year to see how Dave’s list of pitchers stacks up:
Greatest difference between 09 fastball speed thus far and 08 fastball speed
+-------------------+--------+--------+
| Name | Number | Dif |
+-------------------+--------+--------+
| Todd Coffey | 61 | 1.93 |
| Justin Verlander | 119 | 1.81 |
| Kevin Correia | 109 | 1.23 |
| Jonathan Sanchez | 74 | 1.14 |
| Josh Johnson | 163 | 1.14 |
| Matt Albers | 55 | 1.13 |
| Chirs Volstad | 117 | 1.09 |
| Adam Eaton | 55 | 1.09 |
| Armando Galarraga | 97 | 0.98 |
| Jason Marquis | 105 | 0.94 |
+-------------------+--------+--------+
| Geoff Geary | 63 | -2.04 |
| Matt Harrison | 59 | -2.05 |
| Daniel Cabrera | 131 | -2.25 |
| Manny Delcarman | 68 | -2.26 |
| Oliver Perez | 126 | -2.39 |
| Joe Saunders | 128 | -2.44 |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | 62 | -2.44 |
| Hideki Okajima | 55 | -2.66 |
| Dana Eveland | 91 | -2.88 |
| Dennis Sarfate | 67 | -3.12 |
+-------------------+--------+--------+With all the caveats I will still venture that the pitchers at the top of the list, as a whole, out-perform their projections and the pitchers at the bottom under-perform. It will be interesting to see if any of the names on the top of this list turn out to be this season’s Tim Lincecum or Ervin Santana.


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