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Friday, April 17, 2009

Is recent change in fastball speed an indicator of future success?

By Tangotiger, 03:50 PM

First, I love the question.  Secondly, let’s look back at the end of the year to see how Dave’s list of pitchers stacks up:

Greatest difference between 09 fastball speed thus far and 08 fastball speed

+-------------------+--------+--------+
Name              Number |    Dif 
+-------------------+--------+--------+
Todd Coffey       |     61 |   1.93 |
Justin Verlander  |    119 |   1.81 |
Kevin Correia     |    109 |   1.23 |
Jonathan Sanchez  |     74 |   1.14 
Josh Johnson      |    163 |   1.14 |
Matt Albers       |     55 |   1.13 |
Chirs Volstad     |    117 |   1.09 |
Adam Eaton        |     55 |   1.09 |
Armando Galarraga |     97 |   0.98 |
Jason Marquis     |    105 |   0.94 |
+-------------------+--------+--------+
Geoff Geary       |     63 |  -2.04 |
Matt Harrison     |     59 |  -2.05 |
Daniel Cabrera    |    131 |  -2.25 |
Manny Delcarman   |     68 |  -2.26 |
Oliver Perez      |    126 |  -2.39 |
Joe Saunders      |    128 |  -2.44 |
Daisuke Matsuzaka |     62 |  -2.44 |
Hideki Okajima    |     55 |  -2.66 |
Dana Eveland      |     91 |  -2.88 |
Dennis Sarfate    |     67 |  -3.12 |
+-------------------+--------+--------+

With all the caveats I will still venture that the pitchers at the top of the list, as a whole, out-perform their projections and the pitchers at the bottom under-perform. It will be interesting to see if any of the names on the top of this list turn out to be this season’s Tim Lincecum or Ervin Santana.

(12) Comments • 2009/04/19 • SabermetricsBall_TrackingForecasting
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April 17, 2009
Is recent change in fastball speed an indicator of future success?