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Thursday, February 03, 2011
Is Mariano Rivera’s strike zone so pitcher-friendly that he gets a 1.61 run benefit per 9IP?
J-Doug says yes.
If I understand what he did, he looked at all called pitches, and any pitch that was a “100% ball” that was called a strike meant that Rivera got .63 runs of benefit he didn’t deserve if that pitch was on a 3-2 count. (For example, on a 3-2 count, it would have turned a 4-2 count, a walk, into a 3-3 count, a strikeout, which is a .63 run swing.) So, other closer pitches I presume J-Doug might have called it an 80% ball, 20% strike, and based on whether the call was made ball or strike, he calculated a new swing value. It’s a similar kind of process that UZR goes through.
Anyway, Felix gets squeezed 0.30 runs per game, Josh Johnson gets helped by 0.58 runs per game. But Mariano Rivera is at astounding 1.61 runs per 9IP.
I’d like J-Doug to go through some numbers here for us, to walk us through. Because it seems pretty unreal.
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