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Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Is Jason Heyward the new Freddie Lynn?
In 1975, rookie Fred Lynn batted mostly 4th.
In 1976, he batted mostly 3rd.
In 1977, he batted mostly 2nd.
In 1978, he batted mostly 6th.
In 1979, he went back to batting mostly 3rd.
In one sense, it doesn’t really matter where a player hits. Each batting slot means 18 fewer plate appearances. So, if the choice is the 2nd or 6th slot, that’s 72 fewer PA for Heyward, and 72 more for whoever. If a pretty good hitter is about +35 runs above average per 700 PA, that means each PA is worth an extra .05 runs. At 72 “lost” PA, that’s 3.6 lost runs. A little lost leverage as well, and we’re talking about 4 runs.
When I’ve done the studies in The Book, that’s pretty much what I would find. Swap the traditional #2 and traditional #3 hitter, re-run my simulator, and I get a 2 run gain. (If I were to swap the #2 and #6 hitters, 4 runs sounds about right.) Move the PITCHER to the cleanup slot, and it costs “only” 16 runs. This is really what we’re talking about. A bigger cost is made in not identifying the 8 or 9 best hitters to put in your lineup. But, once those are identified, it’s hard to do a bad job with a batting lineup, just as it’s hard to do a bad job with your fielding lineup. Unless you do something silly, like putting the pitcher in the cleanup slot, or putting Ozzie Smith at 1B.
That said, you don’t intentionally put Jason Heyward where he can do less damage.
That that said: players are humans with egos, and more important than fitting in players in their ideal mathematical slot is fitting them in their ideal egotistical slot. I doubt, however, that Heyward feels the most comfort in the 6th slot.
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