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Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Is it easier to get a good ERA+ in a low run environment?
You have a league .350 OBP, and the pitcher has a .250 OBP, meaning that the league OBP is 140% your pitcher’s OBP. If the SLG ratio is similarly proportioned, then in terms of ERA, the league is 4.94 and the pitcher is 2.28, which gives us an ERA+ of 217. These ERAs also correspond to a win percentage of .800.
Now, what happens if you transport the whole league into a deadball era? Let’s turn the league into a .300 OBP league. How will our pitcher be affected? For that, we turn to the Odds Ratio method.
.350 rate = .35/.65 ratio = L1
.250 rate = .25/.75 ratio = P1
.300 rate = .30/.70 ratio = L2
Solve for P2.
P1/LI = P2/L2
P2 = P1*L2/L1
= 25/75*30/70*65/35
= .2653
If the Odds Ratio of Player 2 is .2653, then that implies a rate of .2653 / (1 + .2653) = .210
That is, transporting a .250 pitcher in a .350 league down to a .300 league would give him an OBP of .210.
A .300 OBP league is an ERA of 3.42, and a .210 OBP is an ERA of 1.58. The ERA+ is 342/158*100 = 216. The win percentage is .777.
As you can see, the ERA+ is not easier or harder to get if the run environment is high or low. However, it is a bit more difficult to win in a low run environment.
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