THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Tuesday, April 06, 2010

Is batting last an advantage?

By Tangotiger, 03:27 PM

This article likely references the paper linked here.

Here’s some useful data/model. This is empirical data that shows the chance of the home team winning entering the bottom of the 9th tied is .649, and entering the top of the 9th is .518. On the other hand, if I used a Markov model that treats each inning the same (no change in strategy in the 9th, be it as batters, fielders, or bringing in an ace reliever), we get: .655, .522, respectively.

This means that the home team performed slightly worse than expected both in the top and the bottom of the 9th, and by the same underperformance.

I liked Ted’s idea that he created a model that you could turn on/off small ball strategies to see the effect. It’s a good idea.

(21) Comments • 2010/04/10 • Sabermetrics • In-game_Strategy

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, April 06, 2010

Is batting last an advantage?

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