from Amazon
Friday, April 30, 2010
Is ANYONE worth 125MM$ for 5 years, 2 years out, in his mid-30s?
A Fangraphs reader asked:
...it might add more value to pretend to think the Phillies are run by rational actors and then try to work out the logic. I might get more out of these articles if they did something like that.
Never one to back away from a challenge, I will repeat my analysis, but instead of taking anyone with at least 16 wins over a 4-year period (in which case I had 101 players historically), I will limit it to the TEN best players of all-time at ages 27-30. Those players (last name only): Mays, Gehrig, Aaron, Boggs, Mantle, Duke, Schmidt, Yaz, Musial, Junior. Those are it, the ten best players at that age level. They averaged an astounding 34 wins over those 4 years. If you need a frame of reference, Pujols has 35 wins these last 4 seasons. These guys were the awesomest evah.
And in the two seasons after that (age 31, 32), they averaged 13.5 wins, which is very high as well. What did these guys do from age 33-37? This is the number of wins they earned those 5 years:
41
34
34
34
22
20
19
17
9
3
That’s an average of 23 wins. And if wins are worth 7MM$ in 2012-2016, that makes these guys worth 161 million dollars. So, yeah, you CAN have players worth that much. Pujols for one.
How good do you need to be to be worth 125MM$ (18 wins)? You had to have been one of the 25 best players of all-time. If you take all the guys with at least 25 wins at age 27-30, those guys averaged 29.5 WAR at that age. And at age 33-37, they averaged 18 wins.
So, to answer the Fangraphs reader, in order to justify the rational actors, they have to think that Ryan Howard was a 29.5 WAR player these last 4 years. That is, they have to think he was the 2nd best player these last 4 years. The actual 2nd best player the last 4 years, Chase Utley and Joe Mauer, got 27 wins. Ryan Howard is nowhere close to their level.
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 344 pages 1 2 3 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date