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Friday, May 06, 2011
Is alot of rest too much rest, heading into a playoff series?
Great data from Gabe, which comes out to this:
If you have one to four more days of rest than your opponent, your win% was 0.564, while the expected win% (based on talent, home ice advantage, etc) was 0.514. However, if you had 5+ more days of rest than your opponent, your win% was 0.428, compared to an expected of 0.531.
Each of those gaps (+.050 gain with short rest and -.103 change with long rest) was about one standard deviation from the mean of zero.
However, if our prior was actually +.050 and -.050, then these results don’t do anything to change our mind either. Basically, I’m happy believing the idea that alot of rest is too much rest, and going with that, without concluding yet on the degree.
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