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Tuesday, July 06, 2010
Interleague win% since 2004
win% Year
0.532 2010
0.548 2009
0.591 2008
0.544 2007
0.611 2006
0.540 2005
0.504 2004
Per 162 games, that’s a difference of 5 wins in 2010.
When we talked about this a few months ago:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/superiority_of_al_over_nl/
Where MGL noted:
In 2009, for all IL games in a NL park, the home team was a .515 favorite. In the AL parks, it was .566. So the AL teams overall were .5255.
In 08, it was .518 and .570, or .526 for the AL, and in 07, it was .516 and .568, or .526 again.
Presuming the 2010 odds came out the same way (around .526… MGL, can you confirm), then Vegas was slightly underappreciating the difference. Not much frankly. And I may have been overestimating somewhat.
That thread started because I asserted that BPro’s gap in talent level was too narrow:
That’s why I’m using 8 wins, as halfway between the historical data (1996-2010) of 4 wins and the recent data (2005-2010) of 12 wins. If I did a weighted average, and used each season as 20% more than the previous, I get 8.5 wins. If I use 10% instead, I get 6.5 wins. Whatever it is, it’s far more than 2.7 wins.
2010 “played” as a 5 win difference, compared to the recent historical 7 or 8 wins. Vegas was checking in with around 4.2 wins in 2008, 2009. Probably the best answer today is probably a 6 win difference per 162 games, or the AL having a true talent .520 win% and the NL having a true talent .480 win%, and when they play each other, it results in close to a .540 win% for the AL. I’ve been using .525/.475, .550 entering 2010.
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