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Monday, August 02, 2010
Individual players influence goalie save percentage
This should be obvious, right? You have a guy that doesn’t backcheck, that means he leaves his team open to alot of 3 on 2 and 4 on 3. That makes it harder on your own goalie to make a save (and, hopefully, harder on the opposing goalie too… i.e., the reason you are not backchecking is that you want to be on the offense side of the 3 on 2 and 4 on 3).
DMBH published the z-scores of all player’s WOWY save percentages. He helpfully lists the z-scores, and the standard deviation of the z-scores is 1.22. If there was no save% skill at the individual player level, then we would have expected an SD of the z-scores of exactly 1 (give or take whatever uncertainty level to expect).
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As an aside, and nothing to do with this article: anyone who says that there is no skill in whatever facet of play in whatever sport of your choosing doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Once you involve humans in anything that requires him to use his characteristics, you automatically have a situation where skill exists. Even rock-paper-scissors (RPS) has skill. How is there skill in RPS? If you play in a non-random fashion, and your opponent can figure out your non-random pattern, he can beat you. Your opponent can also get the non-random pattern wrong, and end up beating himself. In order to guarantee no skill in RPS, both participants need to be blind, and not told whether they won or lost each throw.
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