from Amazon
Thursday, August 20, 2009
If you have been disappointed in a player for a long time, and legitimately so…
like Frenchy, is a recent uptick in performance cause for optimism?
No.
We’ve gone over the predictive nature of a “banner” period of performance before. Both Tango and I in separate studies found zero predictive value other than how it changes a hitter’s projection and that is for a one-year spate of banner performance. An entire year. And a banner year was defined as well above a player’s career norms (I don’t remember how we defined it, but I am sure it is something like at least 50 or 100 points of OPS greater than previously).
So Frenchy has a 35 game banner spate with an .810 OPS. Is that reason for optimism? That’s kind of a joke. That probably doesn’t even change his projection by more than 3 OPS points, if that much.
If that makes the Mets “optimistic” and changes the way they treat him (whether they re-sign him or how much they pay him on a re-sign), that is a testament to how dumb an organization can be.
BTW, at this point I have Frenchy as about a .5 to 1 WAR player overall, projection-wise. I would assume that is not even starter material.
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