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Sunday, June 20, 2010
If we can’t trust a manager or pitching coach to know when a pitcher “has it” or not…
...what can we trust?
If you look at the data in the “Should a starter who is pitching a shutout stay in the game?” thread, the 300 pound gorilla in the room is this:
One of the (most) important things a manager and pitching coach can do during a game is determine when to take out and when to leave in their starter (or reliever) based on whether he has his “good stuff” on that day or not, whether he is tired or not, or based on “matchups” between him and upcoming batters. At least that is the conventional wisdom.
It looks to me like there is no evidence that managers and pitching coaches have any ability to discern whether a pitcher “has it” or not (either because he is tired or not, or he has his “good stuff” or not) or is suited to a particular set of upcoming batters or not, late in a game. None whatsoever.
For those of you who are thinking, “Well, you have shown that when a pitcher stays in the game in the latter innings, he pitches exactly as expected, but you have not, and cannot, show what would have happened all those times that the pitcher was NOT allowed to pitch,” I have news for you:
If a pitcher is an overall “.340 wOBA against” pitcher, and when he is allowed to stay in the game he pitches to a .340 level after adjusting for the pool of batters he faces and the “times through the order” effect, guess what we can infer he WOULD HAVE pitched had he been allowed to stay in the game all those times that he was yanked? That same .340, since those two times (when he stays and when he doesn’t) have to average to his overall level!
For all of you who often state, “Managers and coaches know things about players, matchups, etc., that we (as saberists) don’t know,” which is a popular refrain from fans and (some) analysts alike, I say, “Where is the evidence for that?” I think this is pretty damning evidence that they have no clue at all, or at the very least they are letting “results-oriented” thinking (e.g. he is pitching a shutout therefore he must have his “good stuff” today - I forgot about all those lucky bounces and umpire calls, line drives that got caught, and fly balls on the warning track) get in the way of proper observational analysis, which is not at all surprising to me - that is a very strong human inclination when one is not trained in or focused on objective analysis.
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