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Tuesday, July 06, 2010
I really wish people would stop quoting a player’s UZR/150 part way through the season!
I see it all the time in articles by analysts, such as on Fangraphs. UZR/150 means nothing if you don’t regress the actual UZR. If you must quote UZR per 150, at least wait until the player has at least 150 games or so. Otherwise just tell us his UZR and how many defensive games he played.
Why?
Well, you tell me which player is having the best defensive season and/or which player is the best defender?
Player A: UZR/150 = +10
Player B: UZR/150 = +5
Player C: UZR/150 = +20
Now how about if I gave you more information about each player:
Player A: UZR/150 = +2 UZR in 30 games.
Player B: UZR/150 = +4 UZR in 120 games.
Player C: UZR/150 = +1 UZR in 8 games.
Telling us that player C is +20 UZR/150 is like telling us that Player D is 300 HR per 150 games after he hits 2 HR on opening day.
Telling us someone’s UZR/150 well before they amass 150 games is like giving us the ole’ “He is on a pace for...” which we all hate. Why do these writers/analysts do that with UZR? Maybe FG should not even have a column for UZR/150.
BTW, the same argument could be made for any rate stat, like OPS or wOBA. Just telling us someone’s wOBA without telling us the number of PA it is based on is just another way of saying, “He is on a pace for ...” And we should not accept that!
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