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Thursday, April 03, 2008
HR on 0-2 count, to give the team the lead
Walsh goes through the list. The interesting potential here is at the end, where he shows a pitcher throwing three straight pitches of the same type: changeup, in, belt-high or lower. The third pitch went for a HR.
We always assume that pitching is about upsetting the timing of the batter, of mixing up his pitches. I agree with it, and so do you. But, the question remains: to what extent? Mariano has only one pitch, so his “mixing up” is not based on the timing, but only on location. But, what if Mo throws three straight pitches to the same spot? How bad is that for him? Does it turn him average, or minor-league level?
Basically, the question is: how much value is there in location, and how much value is there in mixing-up pitches? If you get to 0-2 on a batter with the same two pitches thrown, what happens if: (a) the third pitch is the same one to the same spot; (b) the third pitch is the same on to the diagonal spot; (c) the third pitch is a different one but to the original spot?
PITCHf/x-ers… that a good question for you to tackle?
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