THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Filter posts by...

Wednesday, April 09, 2008

HR distribution

By Tangotiger, 09:13 AM

Victor looks at the distribution of HR. I wrote this at BallHype:

Good job, Victor. The shape you show is pretty much what I expected. After all, the mean HR rate is around .03 HR per PA. At 500 PA, 1 SD = .0076. So, if a guy gets zero HR, then he’s at -4 SD. You can’t get any lower (at 500 PA). Because your mean is starting so low, the downside is very limited, compared to the upside.

I would guess that if you were to compare the HR distribution, not to the normal distribution, but to a random distribution whose mean is .03, you’ll get something very very close to what you are showing.

I would imagine that OBP, BABIP, and XBH/H would show something much closer to a normal distribution. Probably even K/PA. (As a bonus, K/PA is not really frought with the selective sampling issues that Victor noted.)

(4) Comments • 2008/04/10 • Sabermetrics • Talent_Distribution

Page 1 of 1 pages

Recent comments

May 25 23:40		“Why Kickstarter works”
May 25 19:41		What sabermetrics is NOT
May 25 19:41		Pete Palmer’s new book: Basic Ball
May 25 17:32		Largest demonstration in Canadian history?
May 25 16:59		Howard Stern
May 25 15:12		Do pitcher’s reach back for velocity when needed?
May 25 12:51		Chad Curtis
May 25 11:26		Lack of hustle during a game
May 25 10:58		Rooting for laundry
May 25 02:38		NFLPA lawsuit against collusion
May 25 01:43		Neal Huntington’s best moves
May 24 17:04		Firefox, IE, or Chrome?
May 24 12:07		How to beat the shift
May 24 11:11		Incredible story
May 24 09:41		Racial bias in card collecting: not the collectors, but the players on the cards
May 24 08:13		espnW for hockey: CBC’s WhileTheMenWatch.com
May 24 00:16		Psst… wanna intern… somewhere?
May 23 23:33		Inertia of player safety
May 23 21:36		Doc Halladay: this month’s “hey, a superstar generated random numbers, let’s build a narrative!”
May 23 19:43		Minor league baseballs are built to different specifications than major league baseballs
Older comments Page 1 of 344 pages 1 2 3 > Last »
Complete Archive – By Category Complete Archive – By Date 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2011 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2007 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2006 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wednesday, April 09, 2008

HR distribution

Recent comments

Older comments

Complete Archive – By Category

Complete Archive – By Date

Latest...