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Tuesday, July 13, 2010
HR Derby Hangover effect - with control group
This time Kincaid throws his hat in the ring. The payoff is deep down in the article:
More specifically, I narrowed the pool of players for the control group to the ASG starters (just because that was the simplest way to ensure an All Star actually participated and was not just selected, and because, as we’ll see, doing so gave me a pretty good match for the control group) who did not participate in the HR Derby. I took the top 8 such players from each group each year (again, sorted by first half wRAA). Now, here is what the new control group looks like compared to the Derby group:
...
Based on this control group, we see that not only have Derby participants not lost any home run frequency in the second half over what was expected, as Carty has shown; they also have not lost any overall hitting performance or total PAs. What that tells us is that, compared to other All Star participants who had equally good first halves at the plate, hitters who participate in the Derby haven’t lost any more production or playing time over the past ten years. If there is any meaningful hangover effect, it is certainly far more subtle and less nefarious than it is often made out to be, and it’s not reflected in a simple glance at the second half numbers.
Just a really well-presented, well-progressed article and research.
I would *love* to have seen the Marcels on these players, but that’s a tiny nit in an otherwise very enjoyable piece.
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