THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, July 23, 2010

How to evaluate a forecasting system, using David Price as our test case

By Tangotiger, 11:36 AM

I have the pre-season ordered draft list from Marcel The Monkey Forecasting System (The Marcels) that has David Price ranked as #143. I also have twenty other pro forecasting systems (The Pros) that has him ranked as high as #153 and as low as #325. The consensus rank was #216. So, Marcel has him the highest.

David Price, as of the All-Star break, has 77 Fantasy Points, which ranks him #17 in MLB. These are the sixteen players ahead of him:

105 P Jimenez, Ubaldo
103 P Wainwright, Adam
99 OF Crawford, Carl
96 P Johnson, Josh
96 OF Hamilton, Josh
95 1B Cabrera, Miguel
87 P Halladay, Roy
86 P Lester, Jon
84 OF Rios, Alex
83 1B Guerrero, Vladimir
82 1B Pujols, Albert
82 IF Wright, David
82 1B Votto, Joey
82 OF Gonzalez, Carlos
80 IF Cano, Robinson
80 P Latos, Mat

When it comes to evaluating the forecasting systems, how is it that we should evaluate their forecast of David Price? Let me give you some choices, none of which you would be wrong to choose:

(30) Comments • 2010/08/31 • Sabermetrics • Fantasy • Forecasting

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, July 23, 2010

How to evaluate a forecasting system, using David Price as our test case

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