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Wednesday, March 24, 2010
How to assign baserunning value?
There’s dozens of saberists who do this, and there’s dozens of ways, none of which more right than any other. And in the end, on a career level, it’s not going to matter. To the extent that we want to discuss this, let me tell you how Sean does it and how I do it, and then we can see if we can come up with a consensus.
Let me give you Sean’s method, since it’s so simple to explain: give the entire change in run expectancy to the lead runner whose base-state changes. So, 1b/2b, double-steal: runner on 2b gets the full credit. You’ll get a little quirk with runners on the corners, the runner on 1B steals, there’s an error, and the runner on 3B scores: the runner on 3B gets the full credit.
My method is to give the entire change in run expectancy, regardless of who actually moves off the base, in this way: always to the lead runner who is on base, except if it’s a 1b/3b situation (in which case, the runner on 1B gets the full credit). In Sean’s case and my case, regardless of who gets thrown out, the charge goes to the designated runner.
You can also simply split the credit to all runners on base. I think this is what Fangraphs does (or did?). I used to do this.
As I said, you can make a reasonable argument in anything discussed, here or whatever will follow. I’m more interested to see if we can come with a consensus or not.
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