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Tuesday, November 22, 2011
How seriously should we take the forecasting systems?
Bill James:
I used to do projections for players just for fun. After we started the Handbook (about 1990) John said “Why don’t we publish those projections.”
“John,” I said, “those projections don’t have any scientific validity whatsoever. I’m just messing around with formulas, playing around with them. I can’t publish that.”
“We won’t say they have any validity,” John said. “We’ll just say we do these projections, and you can take them for what they’re worth.” So we started printed them, and people liked them, so we still do it.
A perfect and honest response: Just for fun, no scientific validity, take them for what they’re worth.
Beautiful.
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