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Tuesday, January 19, 2010
How optimistic are fans?
I posted at Fangraphs:
Fangraphs shows 220 non-pitchers with Fan forecasts. The total WAR of those players forecasted is 685 wins. With my personal forecasts, I have those exact players at 496 wins.
Seeing that all non-pitchers in 2009 came in at just under 600 wins, and seeing that there were nearly 700 non-pitchers in 2009 (meaning that there are plenty of players still left to be forecasted), my personal forecast probably serves as a reasonable baseline.
On that basis, Fans are expecting 38% more marginal wins than will be generated. That works out so that the average team wins about 94 games.
Hope truly springs eternal, as everyone thinks they are a playoff contender. Not to worry though. At some point, the Fan forecasts will be recalibrated to knock out the optimism, so that the total WAR (nonpitchers + pitchers) will come in around 1000.
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