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This comes up every now and then, and I’m not sure I’ve posted it in my blog before (though I have elsewhere). Should the win probability tables include the identities of the players, their batting spots, etc? Or, do you always presume each team is exactly equal, even if you have Jose Lima facing Albert Pujols?
There are two ways to look at this:
The strike zones of the 60s really ate many pitchers arms up – Jim Maloney, Drysdale, and there weren’t nearly the corrective practices that are in place since the 1970s, with pitch count restrictions, arm surgeries and Tommy John too. That’s important because injuries that ended careers prior to about 1975 wouldn’t end careers anymore. It would be like saying John Smoltz’ career would be over about 5 years ago. He’s still pretty good.
—Chris Dial
Fantastic point. It’s one of those thoughts that only a real baseball fan could even form as a conjecture. But, is it true?
Here’s what I did:
"We’re also looking to take statistical development in new directions—from pitch-type and pitch speed breakdowns to statistical win probabilities for various sports.”
(Hat tip: D.G.)
Here are some updated UZR numbers as of just before the ASB. Again, they are based on STATS data using the latest version of the UZR methodology (park adjusted, etc.). They do not include “arms” for the OF, turning the DP for the IF, or receiving throws for the 1B (or any other IF).
The full file can be found as the last file here:
http://www.tangotiger.net/mgl/
This from Joe P. Sheehan is pretty cool too.
Interesting article on the changing landscape of suites at sports stadiums. My favorite suite experience was at the Olympic Stadium, where the Expos had the ground-level enclosed area behind home plate (you can sit for a dinner while watching the game, or sit in the seats). Nicest guy was Vlad, who while on one-knee in the ondeck circle would turn his head around to let the kids (on camera day) take pictures of him with his big smile. Dude’s about to come to bat in 3 seconds, and he actually thinks about the kids 20 feet behind him before he goes to home plate.
Dan Fox checks in with all things bunts. Let’s focus on this:
There was a discussion on Baseball Fever about using median ERA, because one bad game can really kill you in ERA. I wrote the following:
Thanks to Studes, I see that Jeff Sagarin has applied the Mills Brothers’ Player Win Average to the Retrosheet years, like here:
http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/mills/nl1987.htm
You can actually try to calculate Leverage Index too. For example, Steve Bedrosian had about 50,000 advancement points in 385 situations, or 130 points per situation. If you take say Mike Scott, he had 62 points per situation. Presuming that 60-65 is the standard number, then we can see that Bedrosian had an LI of around 2.0.
Yet another in a long-series of great research pieces by John Walsh.
He points out to some obvious data quality issues like:
Two out of three ain’t bad. I mostly love Michael Moore. I mostly respect Larry King’s professionalism. CNN.... well, I used to like them. Other than Anderson Cooper and Larry King, I tune them out. But, last night....
This happens in the NHL all the time. It’s really quite shocking. The latest recipient of this largesse is the NHL’s MVP, Sidney Crosby. Crosby is this generation’s Wayne or Mario. In his second season, at the age of 19, he was the league’s MVP.
The NHL has a rookie cap, meaning that for the first three years, a player caps out at 850,000$ per year for 3 years. (And there’s no signing bonuses either.) In the NHL, you become a free agent at the age of 27, or if you have 7 years under your belt. In Crosby’s case, that means playing just 5 more years. In short, something like A-Rod went through in Seattle.
The NHL cap is 20% of the team payroll cap, which is currently 50MM. Between the rookie cap and free agency, you have restricted free agency (meaning arbitration, or if some other team signs your player, you give up draft picks… topping out at four 1st rounders in the case of Sid). Crosby signed an extension of 5/45 (meaning 1 year of free agency has been bought out). This is a free-agent deal, for a guy who is still under the rookie cap. How does this make any sense? Crosby has no leverage.
Also note that the salary cap has been jumping like crazy each year, since the lockout. It started at 39MM, then jumped to 44MM, and now at 50MM. As you can see, the NHL is swimming in cash. If they keep increasing at say 5MM per year, the salary cap would go to 11MM next, 12MM after, 13MM, then 14MM. So Crosby, who as a free agent would have been able to sign single year 5yr deals totalling 65MM, or a 5yr next year at 60MM signs an extension for 5/45. So, he’s not getting the full free agent deal, but that’s awfully close for a guy with two years under his belt.
This causes problems for the rest of the league, since now Crosby can be used in arbitration for the elite players. And even if not, it sets the trend for other players to get near-free agent deals, and those deal will be used in arbitration. (Unless the arbitration process isn’t what I think it is.)
What happens if you take the best pitcher in baseball and give him only one pitch to throw (and that pitch is not Mo’s cutter)? That is, how much of pitching is the quality of the pitches and how much is the selection (mixing up) of the pitches? Unfortunately, no one is crazy enough to do that, to actually tell the batter that he’s going to throw nothing but fastballs. According to a sample at the ever-impressive USSM, we have something close. Felix Hernandex, a veteran pitcher already with unlimited potential (he’s 21 years, 3 months old !), throws 59% of his pitches for fastballs. But, if you look at his first 10 pitches in each game ("establishing his fastball"), he throws 84% fastballs. That is 3.6 SD from his mean, and is therefore highly significant. He’s not telling the batter what he’s doing, but he’s coming awfully close.
His season totals are: .277/.326/.421
His 1st inning totals are: .358/.404/.528
His pitch 1-25 totals are: .345/.383/.517
A few years ago, I noted that Gordie Howe had 1071 North American Major League Professional Hockey goals. That’s NHL, WHA, regular season and post-season.
I was always irked that the WHA was treated as some sort of minor league, and even more, that the post-season is always discarded when it comes to career totals. When you have a superstar like Scott Niedermayer, contemplating retirement at age 33, who has already played 183 post-season games (17% of his regular season totals), those games count. And, if you are going to change their weight, change them UP to 2x or 3x or 5x and not DOWN to 0x!
Anyway, shortly after that, it was brought to the attention of Wayne Gretzky, and an article was written in The Hockey News. Wayne, who had the official regular-season NHL record from a few years earlier, ended his career with 1072 goals. Talk about a squeaker!
Babe Ruth has 729 HR, including his 15 post-season HR. They count, right? I mean, would you rather count them as ZERO?
Hank Aaron goes from 755 to the real 761.
Bonds? Goodbye to 751. He has 9 post-season HR. Say hello to Bonds at 760 MLB homeruns. Bonds needs ONE HR to tie the MLB record, and two to break it.
Note: I really don’t care what the official position of MLB, Elias or anyone else is.
(If you want to take this opportunity to discuss your take on PED, take it outside. This isn’t the place.)
This time from a sabermetric web site. Where are their editors?
This was sent to me recently. I haven’t looked at any yet:
http://ideas.repec.org/s/spe/wpaper.html
May 25 23:40
“Why Kickstarter works”
May 25 19:41
What sabermetrics is NOT
May 25 19:41
Pete Palmer’s new book: Basic Ball
May 25 17:32
Largest demonstration in Canadian history?
May 25 16:59
Howard Stern
May 25 15:12
Do pitcher’s reach back for velocity when needed?
May 25 12:51
Chad Curtis
May 25 11:26
Lack of hustle during a game
May 25 10:58
Rooting for laundry
May 25 02:38
NFLPA lawsuit against collusion
THREADS
May 25, 2012
Pete Palmer’s new book: Basic Ball
May 25, 2012
“Why Kickstarter works”
May 25, 2012
Chad Curtis
May 25, 2012
Which pitchers are the forecasters betting on a good rest-of-season?
May 25, 2012
What sabermetrics is NOT
May 25, 2012
Sports pic of the year?
May 25, 2012
Do pitcher’s reach back for velocity when needed?
May 24, 2012
Largest demonstration in Canadian history?
May 24, 2012
Rooting for laundry
May 24, 2012
What does a loss of velocity mean?
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