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Thursday, May 13, 2010
How many strikeouts is too many?
Jeff has a good article on the subject.
Let me tell you the absolute maximum number of strikeouts you can make, and still be a regular player in MLB. There are three kinds of players we’ll look at: the gold-glove type, the average fielder, and the fielding-challenged.
A great fielder is worth (glove and position) about 20 runs above average. So, you can be 20 runs below average with the bat, and still be a MLB regular. What you need therefore is to just be a .300 wOBA hitter, and you have a regular job.
Suppose that when you don’t strike out, you are a superstar hitter, like Ryan Howard, who has had seasons of a .600 wOBA when he does not strike out. That’s pretty much as good as it gets. So, if you have a .600 wOBA when you don’t strike out, and a .000 when you do, and you need to be .300, then you can strike out 50% of the time, and be able to make it in MLB. The condition of course is that you are a great fielder at a key position.
What about the more realistic view that you are a terrible fielder at a non-key position. You are 25 runs below average fielder (glove+position), so you need to be +25 runs above average as a hitter. So, you need to be a .375 wOBA hitter. Presuming still you are .600 on non-K and .000 on K, that means you can strike out 37.5% of the time, and be an average MLBer.
So, if you are in the minor leagues or college, and you are striking out 30% of the time already, and are forecast to K over 37.5% of the time in MLB, and you have no fielding talent to speak of, then there is no MLB job available for you.
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