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Wednesday, February 03, 2010
How many fumbles is too many?
Brian gives us some good data:
Peterson accumulated +6.94 Win Probability Added (WPA). In other words, the plays in which he has participated were worth nearly 7 wins above average for the Vikings. Unfortunately, his fumbles, both lost and recovered, have cost -2.42 WPA over the same period, for a net of +4.52 WPA. That’s a loss of 35% of his gross productivity due to fumbling.
To put that 35% in perspective, I sampled a few comparable RBs. Chris Johnson has lost 5% of his positive productivity to fumbles. Ray Rice has lost 16%. Michael Tuner and Marion Barber each lost 8%. Clinton Portis came the closest of the group, losing 23% of his productivity to fumbles.
Peterson fumbles in 2% of his touches. What the above quote shows is that if Peterson were to fumble 3 times more than he does, he’d turn into a league-average running back.
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