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Wednesday, May 18, 2011
How good does your starter have to be for this to be correct?
In Rockies/Phillies game today, it was the top of the 8th inning with a runner on 1st, 1 out, the score tied 1-1 and the Rockies’ starter, De La Rosa due to hit. The Rockies’ manager, Jim Tracy, let him bat in order to bunt.
Figure he is only going to pitch another inning on the average.
How much better must your starter be than any reliever you would bring in in order for that to be correct? Let’s put it another way. Let’s say that you wanted to save your good relievers. And let’s assume that De La Rosa is an average starter, which he likely is. You can even assume that he is better than that given that he has only thrown 85 pitches and given up one run, although he is likely going into the 3rd or 4th time through the order (which means that he is a lot worse than when he started or overall). How bad of a reliever can you bring in for it still to be better to pinch hit for De La Rosa?
In any case, give me some numbers and let me know how bad of a managerial strategy this is, if it is bad…
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