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Wednesday, September 02, 2009
Home Field Advantage by travel
Matt gives us a ton of data. You can also check the archives for a similar topic that Phil Birnbaum had when he looked at it by travelling through time zones.
Note that Matt uses “statistically significant” an obscene number of times, when really what he is saying is that the DIFFERENCE between the actual and the expected is non-zero at p = .05. That is, if Matt says that there is a statistical significance between seeing a .540 against an expected .550, he is NOT saying that the .540 is real. He is saying that something OTHER THAN .550 is true, and he’s 95% sure of that. It could be .549. And, it even depends if he did a one-tail or two-tail test, because it could even mean that .551 is also true. All we know is that there is something non-random going on, but we don’t know how much of it it is.
UPDATE: this was Phil’s article.
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