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Monday, March 21, 2011
Hockey shot situations
I love this. Just great great stuff. Here’s what we have based on a blogger rolling up his sleeves and recording some specific situations.
1. Breakaway shots are taken from an average distance of 18.3 feet. A breakaway really means that there’s no defender in front of a shooter, but there is a defender actively in pursuit. The shooter’s scoring rate is 25.6% (presuming that the defender did not stop him from shooting). A regular shot from that distance is 12%. So, being on a breakaway adds +.136 goals.
As a side note, shootouts, which are breakaways but without any defender at all, has a scoring rate of .327. So, we see that the value of the defender actively pursuing the skater has an impact of .071 goals. Therefore, if you let the shooter have so much room that he’s on a defacto shootout, you have cost your team .071 goals.
2. With 2-on-1, the average shot is taken from 27.3 feet, and the scoring rate (presuming you got a shot off) is 20.4%. With a typical shot at that distance, the scoring rate is 8.3%. So, being able to get a 2-on-1 adds +.121 goals, which is somewhat in line with the breakaway (which is a 1-on-0).
Basically, having one fewer defender to contend with means you are adding .12 to .13 goals for every shot you manage to take. That is an enormous number.
A typical superstar would be worth .25 goals for an entire game. So, if a team gives up two more odd-man rushes than its opponent, it’s as if they neutralized their own superstar.
As a matter of accounting, I would like to see the systematic collection of odd-man rushes, in terms of number, and how often they manage to get a shot off.
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