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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, July 12, 2007

Historical Win Probability Numbers

By Tangotiger, 12:53 PM

Thanks to Studes, I see that Jeff Sagarin has applied the Mills Brothers’ Player Win Average to the Retrosheet years, like here:
http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/mills/nl1987.htm

You can actually try to calculate Leverage Index too.  For example, Steve Bedrosian had about 50,000 advancement points in 385 situations, or 130 points per situation.  If you take say Mike Scott, he had 62 points per situation.  Presuming that 60-65 is the standard number, then we can see that Bedrosian had an LI of around 2.0.

(6) Comments • 2008/01/15 • Sabermetrics • Run_Win_Expectancy
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May 25 19:41
What sabermetrics is NOT

May 25 19:41
Pete Palmer’s new book: Basic Ball

May 25 19:38
“Why Kickstarter works”

May 25 17:32
Largest demonstration in Canadian history?

May 25 16:59
Howard Stern

May 25 15:12
Do pitcher’s reach back for velocity when needed?

May 25 12:51
Chad Curtis

May 25 11:26
Lack of hustle during a game

May 25 10:58
Rooting for laundry

May 25 02:38
NFLPA lawsuit against collusion

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July 12, 2007
Historical Win Probability Numbers

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