THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, November 29, 2010

Hayhurst on Jeter

Dirk:

Someone we love, or in this case, someone we want to continue loving because we’ve become used to the idea of them as a hero, starts to muddy the water with irrational behavior. Well, irrational in our eyes at least.... However, as a player, I know you have to fight for what you can get and apologize to no one for getting it....

Bullsh!t Dirk.  I love all of Dirk’s writings.  This one though?  Bullsh!t.  It’s a “end justifies the means” argument, and those are surefire non-winners.  Jeter is fighting like a fool fights, with the comparisons to Babe Ruth and his iconic status to the Yankees and Earth.

For goodness sakes, most of the articles involving Jeter speak of him, at age 36 mind you, like he’s an old dog who can’t hunt anymore.

Yes, that’s the problem! Historical precedent is on our side here.  Jeter wants a long-term guaranteed contract, when 40% of players in Jeter’s position had no value to speak of from that point onward.

He’s as close to a real life Captain America as it gets; a poster child for class, and that’s why he can’t be evaluated purely by the number he is (or isn’t) currently producing.

But why does this benefit the Yankees to the point that they need to spend 125MM$ (what he wants) instead of 25MM$ (what I think he deserves)?  Why does Captain America need to be paid an extra 100MM$ by the Yankees?

What Jeter should do is sign a year-to-year deal that will pay him 25MM$ a year, if he’s the starting SS of the Yankees, a 15MM$ a year if he’s a starting non-SS of the Yankees, and 5MM$ a year if he’s not a starter.  That is still double what he’s worth.  The Yankees can automatically renew the contract indefinitely, with a 25MM$ buyout.

If the Yanks continue to play him as the starting SS for the next 5 years, then he gets 25x5+25 = 150MM$.  If he’s their starting SS for the next 2 years, then in the outfield in the third year, and then on the bench for the next 2, that’s 25*2 + 15 + 5*2 + 25 = 100MM$. 

That is a way better way to sell him.  Guaranteed 24MM$ for 5 years?  That’s crazy talk.  My proposal for a framework puts it in a perspective that people can rally around: if the Yanks think he’s good enough to be their starting SS, then pay him superstar prices.  If they don’t think that, they pay him less.  And then, for “past services rendered” gets his golden parachute.

Cashman of course would counter with a 16MM$ (SS), 8MM$ (non-SS), 4MM$ (bench), 5MM$ (buyout).  In that case, 2 years as starting SS, one year as non-SS, and the buyout gives us 16*2 + 8 + 5 = 45MM$.  That matches his current offer.

That’s what this is about: constructing the proper framework first, and then, paying for particular set of services.  Invoking Captain America is a terrible argument.