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Saturday, September 04, 2010
Half-way to a win
Will Carroll:
It does make me curious. Using win probability, is there a certain point of innings and earned runs that gives a team something north of a 75% chance to win? Because of how WP is calculated, it’s going to have to be a very, very big sample to get anything meaningful, but I think we have that (or can figure it out.)
Oh - why 75%? I know that teams don’t start out at 50%, but I think that if we use that as the theoretical starting point, getting the team “halfway to a win” is a pretty nice measure.
Well, I love the tag line of “half way to a win”. Anyway, to answer Will, it’s pretty straight forward. Every run drops your win expectancy by 0.100, and every IP adds 0.050 (more or less).
So, 5 IP of 0 runs means you add +.250 (.050 x 5), and puts you half-way toward a win. 7 IP and 1 R, and 9 IP and 2 R also does it.
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