THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Going for extra bases, Retrosheet Years

Want to know how times have changed, how often runners go for the extra base on a hit?  Here you go.

To read the first line: when a single is hit, with a runner on 1B, between 1957 and 1968, with 0 outs, the runner will go for the extra base 36% of the time, and he will be successful 95% of the time.  This compares to the 1993-present numbers of 27% and 96%.  The gap widens with 1 out (39% attempt, against 30% attempt), and shrinks alot with 2 outs (40% to 36%).  The 1957-1968 was definitely more aggressive, as they ran just as hard with 1 out as with 2 outs, which is not necessarily a good idea.

The same pattern repeats with the runner on 2B.  With 2 outs, there’s not much distinguishing a runner’s aggressiveness over the years.  But, at 0 and 1 out, runners today are far more passive.  There’s nothing necessarily wrong with that, since far more runs score today, making the breakeven point higher today (outs are costlier).

On the flip side, a double, with a runner on 1B, has not changed the aggressiveness of the baserunner.

At some point, soon I hope, I’ll break down these numbers by baserunner.

I’ll also point out the obvious:

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