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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, October 29, 2009

Girardi just couldn’t help himself…

By , 04:29 PM

He finally benched Swisher and is going to start Hairston in RF tonight.  How much will that cost?  Hairston is probably a better fielder and much worse hitter, especially with a RH pitcher starting in Pedro.

That panic move (did anyone expect anything else, really?) probably costs around 1% in WE, which is not a lot, but if that were an in-game move, such as a bad IBB or something like that, 1% is actually a decent amount.  Remember that the bad IBB to A-Rod by the Angels cost around 1.5% I think.  Pinch hitting Hairston for A-Rod in the 9th cost something like 2% I think.

Also, for some strange reason (to me) Girardi won’t split up Matsui and Cano, back to back lefties.  Even though neither one of them has a large platoon split, in the post-season you don’t want to have back to back lefties and invite the other team to bring in a LOOGY once or even twice in high leverage situations, if you can help it.

(35) Comments • 2009/10/31
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October 29, 2009
Girardi just couldn’t help himself…