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Monday, February 23, 2009
Gameday on Shifts
Wow.
Max uses Gameday location data to determine how teams should play the shift on Chase Utley and whether to put a 4th infielder or 4th outfielder, using cluster analysis. The one issue I will take, and I think this is huge, is the 3-IF model gives the 1B half the balls between 1B and 2B. But, who the heck is going to cover 1B?
There is a maximum spot at which a 1B can play. Trying to figure it out quick, he has to be able to run to the bag in 3 seconds (and decelerating so he stops there at speed of 0). Average 1B probably runs 100m in 15 seconds. All-out, he’ll take 20m. Including the start/stop, maybe 10m? So, 30 feet or so is about as far as he can play. And, at that, he cannot field any balls himself that he has to wait for. So, 20 feet maybe? I think Max would be better off forcing the position for the 1B to wherever Pujols, Tex, Kotchman, Gonzalez and the other great fielding 1B play. (Easy enough using Gameday.)
Then, let’s see what the cluster analysis says.
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