from Amazon
Monday, June 13, 2011
Game-scoring Liriano’s latest
Liriano threw a gem, and 92% of readers thought this game was better than his no-hit shoutout, even though they both got a Bill James Game Score of 83.
***
So, let’s see what my four Game Scores gives him, compared to what I gave him for his no hit shutout:
The first one focused just on runs allowed:
GameScore = 86 (compared to his nohit shutout of 103).
The second one focused only on K and BB:
GameScore = 67 (compared to 28).
The third one focused on FIP:
GameScore = 75 (compared to 46).
The fourth one was LWTS-based:
GameScore = 60 (compared to 61).
A simple average is 72 (compared to nohit shutout simple average of 60).
***
I also offered this:
GameScore
= 40
+ 4.5 * IP (<-- coefficient changes based on run environment)
+ 1 * SO
- 1 * H
- 2 * BB
- 2 * R
- 5 * HR
The nohit shutout was 71, and this new game he just had is 81.
***
Therefore, I would say that the Bill James Game Score did not properly capture the impact of the game, insofar as the readers are concerned.
I’m not saying that mine is the best way, but it is possible that it is better than what James has.
But I am also saying that someone can do even better. And to do that, what we need are personal SUBJECTIVE ratings of various starts, so that we can link objective data to those subjective starts.
And what the readers of that site did was fantastic. They showed, in no uncertain terms, that they want his latest start to rate much higher than his nohit shutout start.
Whether ten “points” that my current method proposes is good enough or not, well, that’s why we need more subjective ratings.
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