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Sunday, January 01, 2012
Fun fact of the day: a closer with a 7.11 ERA
Great find:
Shawn Chacon got 35 saves as the “closer” for the Rockies in 2004. He had an ERA of 7.11. He had zero saves before that season. He got one more save for the rest of his career.
Chacon was a full-time starter for all but two seasons, one being the aforementioned season. He had a -2.3 WPA in 2004, which is really all you need to know about his effectiveness. He was as bad at home as he was away. He was as bad in save situations as non-save situations. He had as many K as BB, which is a recipe for a disaster of a season, and add in a worse-than-average HR rate, and you get the mother of all closer seasons.
And yet, 35 “saves”. In those 35 saves, he had a WPA of +3.1, or +.09 wins per save. In his other 31 games, he was -6.1 wins (or -.20 wins per game).
If we take a bad Mariano Rivera season to compare: in 2007 he had 30 saves, with +3.7 WPA, or +.12 wins per save. In his other 37 games, he was -1.3 WPA (or -.04 wins per game).
There is one good piece of information to go along with those 35 saves: he had a 1-9 record. As you can see, when Chacon would blow a save, he would blow it really big.
There have been six seasons where a reliever has: saved at least 30 games, won at most 2, and lost at least 8, including Chacon. Four of those pitchers had a respectable ERA, but one, Brad Lidge, had perhaps the worst relief season of all-time. 31 saves, 0 wins, 8 losses, and a 7.21 ERA. His WPA that year was -4.6 wins.
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