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Thursday, August 18, 2011
Frenchy: Replacement-level player no longer replacement-level
Such is life when dealing with uncertainty levels. When we say Jeff Francoeur is a replacement-level player, we don’t know for certain that he is. It’s just our estimate that he is. According to fWAR, he was close to 0 wins from 2008-2010. According to rWAR, he was below 0 wins. In the three seasons from 2005-2007, fWAR had him at 8 wins and rWAR at 6 wins.
When you make your estimate, you have to use all his data, not just his last three seasons. Of course, the further back in time you go, the less weight you give. Roughly speaking, the last three years should get double the weight to the three seasons preceding those. For most players, you can just look at the last three years, and get on with it, because you’ll get a similar answer. But with some guys, like Frenchy, who shows an 8 win gap between the current 3 years and preceding 3 years, you need to consider it.
So, entering 2011, rather than thinking he is a replacement-level player, you’d see he averaged around 0 wins in the last three seasons, and a bit over 3 wins per 162 games in the three seasons preceding those (using fWAR). Now, his average is a bit over 1 wins. Furthermore, seeing that he’s young, his true talent is on an upward slope. Finally, given that he was given so much playing time, regression toward the mean demands that he be compared to a more select group of players. All of a sudden, a guy who can be reasonably considered a replacement-level players under one perspective can then be considered at least a 1 win player, if not 1.5 wins, entering 2011.
Now, with Frenchy’s above average season this year, that (enhanced) estimate entering 2011 will be even higher entering 2012.
If we consider the entirety of his career, weighting each successive season at 25% higher than the preceding one, then Frenchy is at 5.3 WAR in 2236 weighted PA, or 1.66 WAR per 700 PA. We bump that up a bit because of regression toward the mean (10% toward 2.25 league average, or, if you want to be fair, something like 2.5 or 2.75 toward guys who play all the time like Frenchy). So, he gets an extra 0.1 WAR, to put him at 1.76 WAR. And then a bump of his past performance because of his age, which would be say another 0.1 WAR. We’ve got him now at 1.86 WAR. We give him 85% playing time, and now our new official estimate of Frenchy’s talent level entering 2012 is 1.6 wins. And for 2013, it’s going to be say 1.4 wins.
So, 2012-2013 is 3 wins of value, which at 4.5MM$ per win is 13.5MM$. And that’s what Frenchy’s next extension was signed at. Congratulations to Frenchy and the Royals for signing a fair deal.
Well, fair, as best as our uncertainty level allows us to say.
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