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Sunday, October 16, 2011
Freeman v Pena, via UZR
Freeman initiated 138 plays at first base that led to at least one out (as best as I can understand ”plays” ). Since he had 92 assists, he must have had about 46 unassisted putouts.
At 0.9 plays made per game, it’s behind only Carlos Pena for fewest in MLB. According to BIS data, he had 188 opportunities to make a play. That is one of the fewest opportunities to make a play. So, is Freeman not making plays because he has few opportunities, or he’s out of position? Or is he not that good?
138 plays made out of 188 opps is 2nd lowest after Carlos Pena.
Fans see Freeman (and Carlos Pena) as above-average fielding 1B.
So, how does UZR see Freeman as -13 runs, worst in MLB, and Carlos Pena at right around 0?
What is it about the quality of Pena’s opportunities that UZR considers his league-low plays made per opp (111/152=0.726) to be very biased against Pena such that his UZR is +1 (in-line with Fans), but Freeman’s opportunities to be a fair representation and unbiased?
I’d like to see that distribution of balls in play for Pena and Freeman. Is the distribution that different? Or is UZR that sensitive to their differing opportunities that it could cause a 13 run difference?
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