from Amazon
Friday, February 18, 2011
Free agency for all
What would happen if everyone signed one-year deals?
I know what you are thinking: 5MM$ per win x forecasted wins = 35MM$ for Pujols.
But, no. The $ per win is set presuming that MLB is operating efficiently in signing their free agents. What if instead MLB teams are simply spending to budget?
Let’s say that MLB has decided that to turn the profit they want, they want to spend 3 billion $ in salaries, as they are doing right now, plus say another 1 billion $ in “development” costs (minor leagues, scouting, signing bonuses, etc). I totally made up that 1 billion$ figure. If you were to make every player a free agent after his first year, MLB would have to reorganize so that the feeder system would be some sort of MLB controlled academy. Instead of teams individually adding up to 1 billion$ in development cost, they’d pool their money for that.
Anyway, you’ll still have 1000 wins above replacement. That’s going to remain fixed. With 3 billion$, that means that each win is going to cost 3MM$. (A bit less because of minimum salary consideration.)
So, if everyone is a free agent, and if Pujols is say 7 wins above replacement, he’d sign a series of 21MM$ (present-day) contracts. Sounds like he’d take a hit from the 30-35MM$ he should get in current free agency, no?
Don’t forget though that in the first 6 years, he played at a deep discount. If let’s say he was a 7 win player each of those years, he should have gotten 147MM$ (present-day dollars), but instead got less than 40MM$. So, he’s been playing at over a 100MM$ discount over the first 6 years.
Overall, this “Free agency for all” system would benefit anyone who has a career that was less than 6 years, and likely benefit anyone with a career of under 10 years.
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 344 pages 1 2 3 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date