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Monday, January 01, 2007

Forecasting Young Players

By Tangotiger, 01:19 PM

This article at Lookout Landing illustrates very nicely how Marcel can forecast a young player better than PECOTA and ZIPS.

In 2005, YuBet was .256/.296/.370 (in only 228 career PA).  How to forecast 2006?  The regression toward the mean equation is at the 200 PA level, which pretty much means Marcel would have forecast YuBet around half-way between his career performance and the MLB average.  Plus a healthy age adjustment, because he’s on the steep ascension.  Hence, a .270/.322/.407.

PECOTA on the other hand had him replicating his 2005, and ZIPS had him below his 2005.  Why?  Here’s the trick:

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(37) Comments • 2007/01/05 • Sabermetrics • Forecasting
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January 01, 2007
Forecasting Young Players

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