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Monday, December 20, 2010
Forecasting playing time
MGL asked if someone’s ever done this. A few years ago, I had two interesting threads. One was this one, where I gave this initial equation:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/forecasting_playing_time/
Future PA = [PA]*((67/[age])^2) + (67/[age])^6.7 - 650
(See thread for details.) In that thread, I gave the crowd a challenge, and no one took me up on it. Well, there’s some fresh blood out there, so, consider this challenge reopened. I even posted raw data for you.
The second was this thread:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/forecasting_pujols_ab/
That was also an excellent thread that discussed regression toward the mean. There’s also good comments by dq, that essentially says that the mean forecast is not going to minimize the absolute differences.
Anyway, we talk very little about forecasting playing time, when that’s really half the battle. And, it should be obvious that talent and playing time are strongly correlated.
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