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Fantastic stuff from Jeff: part1, part2.
First off, the mean forecast for any starter is 40%. So, Jeff’s got his forecasts, at the extreme, at +/- 15%. I have to believe the uncertainty of his estimate is going to be mighty high, some +/-20%.
Secondly, the median stay is some 50 days or so.
Conclusion: pitchers are expected to miss ALOT of time.
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December 14, 2010
Forecasting likelihood of starting pitchers being injured
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