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Sky tells us that it’s about 2 parts by the components, 1 part by actual runs scored and allowed, and 1 part by actual wins and losses. And depending on how many games remaining, you have a certain amount of regression toward the mean.
Roughly speaking, you use this equation:
45 / (45 + G)
If you’ve played 45 games, you regress 50%. If you’ve played 90 games, you regress 33%. Something like that.
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Chad Curtis
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August 11, 2009
Forecasting a team’s W/L record
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