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Thursday, July 22, 2010
Forecasters Challenge 2010 - Mid-season results
After a series of posts where I highlighted the results of various fun competitions, now we get into the official competition.
In this competition, each Pro forecaster is put in his own league against 21 average forecasters (Joe). In order to make the apples-to-apples comparison, the Pro faced off against the same 21 average forecasters, from the same draft spot. So, when Marcel drafts first against Joe1 through Joe21 in the Marcel Draft1 league, then Chone also drafted first against Joe1 through Joe21 in the Chone Draft1 league. Each of the 22 Pro forecasters followed the same pattern. In addition to that, Marcel then drafted second against 21 new Joes (Joe22 through Joe42). And so on, and so on, and so on.
In the end, each Pro ended up in 22 leagues, each facing identical competition.
Where did these Joes come from? That was the fun part. Fangraphs asked their readers in the offseason for their forecasts. So, what I did was this: for each team, I took the 21 fans that provided the most number of forecasted players. For the Yankees, I’d have Reader1 through Reader21. For the Redsox, I’d have Reader22 through Reader42, and so on. I then randomly selected one fan for each of the 30 teams, and called that collection of readers Joe1. Of the remaining readers, I repeated those steps, until I ended up with 21 Joes, from Joe1 to Joe21. I then put them into the competition as noted in the earlier paragraph.
I then did the same thing for Joe22 to Joe42: randomly selecting one fan from each team. In this way, I am able to mix-and-match 630 (21x30) fans’ picks into 21x22 collections (462 Joes).
This model, I believe, should represent a reasonable group of average Joes that you would find in a Fantasy League.
We now come to the results, as of the All-Star Game break:
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