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Thursday, March 17, 2011
Foreacasting playing time, again
First off, thanks to Jeremy a few weeks ago for the insight of comparing playing time in the previous two seasons. Because of that, I worked out an improvement to the playing time model (for nonpitchers anyway). Here it is:
1. Figure out if the player had more plate appearances in the past season than two seasons ago. If he had more playing time two seasons ago, find the average of the two. If he had more playing time last season, only use that one. So, these players will have the same effective plate appearances (400 in this case):
400 PA last season, 100 PA two seasons ago
300 PA last season, 500 PA two seasons ago
2. Take 78% of the figure above (312 in this case).
3. Figure an age adjustment as follows: 315 - Age x 9. Cap that age at 40. So, a player that is 35 years old has no adjustment. A player that is 25 years old will get 90 extra plate appearances. A player that is 40 or older will get minus 45 plate appearances.
4. Add up 2 and 3.
Voila, your new plate appearance forecast.
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