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Thursday, December 02, 2010
Flyball distances for Yuni
Jeff points out:
Don’t be fooled by Yuni’s 2010 power outburst. His batted ball distance was the same as in 2009 (or the past 4 years)
Disclaimer: conclusion contingent on reliability of data.
***
Several years ago, MGL created “virtual HR”, whereby he used batted ball distances, rather than actual HR, to forecast next year’s HR. (Basically, the “just enough HR” and “warning track HR” would count as if each were half a homer, and HR that cleared the fence by say 10 feet would count as 3/4ths of a homer, and so on. Numbers for illustration purposes only.)
And, a funny thing happened: both did just as well. Ideally, we would have expected the virtual HR to be a far better indicator, seeing that “HR” is not a skill, but “hitting long flyballs” is. HR is a result of the long FB skill.
I chalked that up to the idea that there may be a HR skill, that someone will change their approach just enough to affect the length of his FB to take advantage of whatever park he’s in (there’s a cost for that of course). And pitchers counteracting that too.
That was all pre-Greg and pre-HITf/x. It’ll be interesting to see results of virtual HR and whether there is a HR skill over-and-above the FB distances.
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