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Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Fleeting moment, or epitaph: 600 HR?
If you are still basking in the 600 HR Kool Aid, don’t read further. Come back tomorrow if that 600 HR is a fleeting moment. If you want that 600 HR to mean more than that, then stay away.
Jim Thome, from 1991-1993 played a total of 114 games spread out over those three seasons, with 427 PA. In those seasons, he had a slash line of .244/.330/.390. Those three seasons added nothing at all to Thome’s legacy. We can safely discard those three seasons in their entirety, and we’ll still be left with a complete picture of Jim Thome’s accomplishments.
Since 1994, he’s had 9593 PA. Jeff Bagwell, in his career, has 9431 PA. These are two careers of virtually identical length. Thome’s slash line since 1994 is .279/.407/.566, while Bagwell is .297/.408/.540. Bagwell stole 202 bases, while Thome has stolen 14. Bagwell we suspect, and can reasonably prove, was a far better fielder than Thome. Thome’s rWAR is 70 wins, while Bagwell is 80 wins. Their fWAR is 70 for Thome, and 84 for Bagwell. By all reasonable indications, Bagwell was at least Thome’s equal, if not his superior.
Thome had in the above noted time period 590 HR, while Bagwell is at 449. The HR are a nice thing to note. The 600 HR thing will take a life on its own, and Thome will be remembered for it. Indeed, it’s possible that Thome will make the Hall of Fame before Bagwell does, even though Bags had a 5+ year head start. Thome gets an epitaph, while Bagwell will be discussed in passing as time erodes all that he has done.
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By the way, Thome has 17 career post-season HR. The record keepers will make you believe that those are worth nothing at all. If you are going to go to the trouble of counting HR, count all those that actually matter. While I have no problem with “regular season” and “post season” as categories, there still needs to be an overall category, and that category must include both.
And, please, don’t talk about “fair”, as if the regular season itself is fair and balanced to begin with. Go spread your Faux News on that issue (or any releated issue) elsewhere.
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Apply critical thinking even to things that are as meaningless as this.
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